The growth rate of real estate investment narrowed for three consecutive months, and the industry said that the property market was close to the turning point.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 14th, from January to October, the national investment in real estate development was 9,932.5 billion yuan, up 9.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.2 percentage point from January to September, which was the third consecutive month of decline.
Specifically, except for the increase in construction area, other indicators showed a downward trend. From January to October, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 7,844.25 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, and the growth rate was 0.4 percentage points higher than that of January to September. The newly started housing area was 1,687.54 million square meters, an increase of 16.3%, and the growth rate dropped by 0.1 percentage point. The completed housing area was 573.92 million square meters, down by 12.5%, with a decrease of 1.1 percentage points.
In terms of land, from January to October, the land acquisition area of real estate development enterprises was 219.63 million square meters, up 15.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.4 percentage points from January to September; The land transaction price was 1,169.5 billion yuan, an increase of 20.6%, and the growth rate dropped by 2.1 percentage points.
"The year-on-year growth rate of land transaction area declined slightly, and the increase in average transaction price narrowed for seven consecutive months." Shen Xin, a researcher at Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, said that near the end of the year, considering that the funds of housing enterprises tend to be tight, the pace of land purchase will slow down. At the same time, due to the continuous decline in sales growth, it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of new construction area will show a slight decline.
Judging from the funds in place for real estate, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises in the first 10 months were 1,356.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, and the growth rate dropped by 0.1 percentage point from January to September. Among them, domestic loans were 1,972.7 billion yuan, down 5.2%; The use of foreign capital was 8 billion yuan, down 35.6%; Personal mortgage loans reached 1,940.8 billion yuan, down by 0.9%.
Commercial housing transactions also dropped significantly. Statistics from the Bureau of Statistics show that in the first 10 months, the sales area of commercial housing was 1,331.17 million square meters, up 2.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.7 percentage points from January to September. The sales volume of commercial housing was 11,591.4 billion yuan, up by 12.5%, and the growth rate dropped by 0.8 percentage points.
Zhang Bo, chief analyst of 58 Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute, said that real estate regulation and control continued to be "steady and steady", and the cooling of real estate has become a market consensus. He believes that the state strictly controls the flow of funds to the real estate sector, and developers are facing financing difficulties. Accelerating the payment of sales has become the consensus of housing enterprises. Under the huge financial pressure, housing enterprises may further exchange prices for quantity and accelerate the return of sales funds.
"The real estate data released by the Bureau of Statistics from January to October shows that the overall property market is still at a high level, but ‘ Golden September and Silver 10 ’ Fever, a number of data growth slowed down, showing a gradual and stable trend. " Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, believes that according to the current trend, although the national real estate sales will still set an annual historical record in 2018, the sales area is likely to be basically the same as that in 2017, and the property market is close to the turning point.
"From January to October, there were more than 400 real estate regulation and control in the country, which set a new historical record. The superimposed real estate credit policy was tightened, and investor control was obvious. At the same time, after housing prices continued to rise for several years, the number of buyers chasing high decreased and the investor’s enthusiasm decreased. " Zhang Dawei said.