Thirteen films were packed into the "May Day" schedule, and the schedule dependence became more and more serious.

  Is this year’s "May Day" file too crowded? Yesterday, the movie "When Love Comes" suddenly appeared in the "May Day" file pre-sale list of Lighthouse Professional Edition. At one time, there were as many as 14 films in May 1st, which was twice as many as those in the Spring Festival. After several appearances, there are still as many as 13 films, which is the largest number of films in May 1st in history.

  Although there are many films, the box office is not satisfactory. It has been a week since the pre-sale of the May 1 movie. According to the real-time data of Lighthouse Professional Edition, as of 17: 50 on April 28, the total box office of the May 1 movie (including the new movie released on April 30) exceeded 100 million yuan. Insiders pointed out that compared with Spring Festival, Summer Holiday, National Day and New Year’s Eve, the "May Day" file can only be regarded as a "waist file", but it is this waist file that attracts more than a dozen movies, as if it were more popular than the Spring Festival file.

  The films are released together, why is the pre-sale cold? How should the industry re-examine the festival schedule? Under the "involution" of the waist schedule, we may wish to have some cold thinking.

  Is the "May Day" file worth squeezing?

  The output value of "May 1st" file is obviously higher than that of Qingming file, Dragon Boat Festival file and Mid-Autumn Festival file. This year’s "May 1 ST" file showed a situation of "one super and many strong" in the pre-sale stage like the Spring Festival file, and the word-of-mouth of the film became more and more important.

  "My happiness is gone." Many fans sighed when they learned that "Antique close encounter of mahjong", which was originally scheduled for May Day, was withdrawn. "Antique close encounter of mahjong" is not the only film that disappeared from the May 1 ST file. The film "There is She in the World" directed by Zhang Aijia, Li Shaohong and Chen Chong also disappeared in the pre-sale lineup of the May 1 ST file, which made many people’s expectations fail. At present, it is not known when it will be released.

  Movies such as Manas Man, Migratory Birds and Dog Fruit Theorem once quietly appeared in the "May Day" file list, and then quietly left; "Running to the Sea" and "When Love Comes" suddenly filled the position in recent days. At present, there are 13 May 1 movies that have been pre-sold, including My Love’s On the Cliff, Secret Visitor, Fighting Against the Black, ONCE UPON A TIME IN HONG KONG’s The Sunshine Robber, The True Three Kingdoms, GG Bond Movie, The Diary of a Dinosaur, Searching for Han, etc., making it the largest number of May 1 movies in history.

  Among this year’s "May 1" movies, the most eye-catching one is the spy war movie "Above the Cliff", which was first tried by director Zhang Yimou. The film, starring Zhang Yi, Yu Hewei, Amanda, Zhu Yawen and Liu Haocun, tells the story that in 1930s, a group named "outrat" was sent to the Northeast, and fought bravely with the enemy and carried out covert operations under severe test. Before the release, the film accumulated word of mouth after screening, and the score of cat’s eye screening was as high as 9.2 points. Previously, films such as Antique close encounter of mahjong and There is She in the World were withdrawn from the archives. Apart from being "too crowded", many people analyzed it to avoid such strong films as Above the Cliff. However, with the withdrawal of two films with more attention, there are not many films that can be regarded as heavyweights in this year’s "May 1" file.

  Yu Xiansheng, the manager of a Shanghai cinema, thinks that this year’s "May Day" movies are of good overall quality, such as My Love, the star-studded Above the Cliff and Secret Visitor, which have high box office expectations. At the same time, he is optimistic about the movie "True Three Kingdoms Warriors" adapted from the game. Although the pre-sale of the film is not ideal at present, it is better than the strong cast, which is expected to attract many fans of the Three Kingdoms and game fans to watch the movie.

  In the May 1 movie, Professor Ishikawa of Shanghai Theatre Academy was more optimistic about Above the Cliff, and he predicted that ONCE UPON A TIME IN HONG KONG might also become a dark horse. "Hong Kong films have a high degree of completion from the film industry level, mainly depending on the director’s degree of play." He believes that the collective absence of appealing young and middle-aged directors such as Xú Zhēng, Frant Gwo and Luyang in this year’s "May 1 ST" file exposed the problem of insufficient creative power at present. "After their films entered the Spring Festival file, the" May 1 ST "file could not get a strong film. Although there is Zhang Yimou, it is not attractive enough for young movie-watching groups."

  Is the "May Day" file worth squeezing? According to the historical data, the highest box office record of the "May 1st" file is 1.527 billion yuan for the four-day holiday in 2019. If the natural growth brought by the extension of holiday time is not counted, the "May 1st" file is also the second three-day holiday box office after the New Year’s Day file, which exceeds 1 billion yuan, and its output value is significantly higher than that of Qingming file, Dragon Boat Festival file and Mid-Autumn Festival file. With the extension of the May Day holiday to five days, its position in the film market will continue to rise in the future.

  Liu Zhenfei, an analyst at Cat’s Eye Research Institute, said that in 2021, there will be 13 May 1 movies, among which 9 movies, including My Love’s Above the Cliff and Secret Visitors, the number of people who want to see Cat’s Eye exceeds 10,000. In 2018, the total number of new films around the "May 1 ST" file layout was 10, and the number of people who wanted to see it was 6. This year, both the number of scheduled films and the number of popular films have reached a record high. "Overall, this year ‘ May Day ’ In the pre-sale stage, the stalls are like Spring Festival stalls ‘ How strong is one super ’ The situation, but ‘ How strong ’ The situation is not clear at present, and the final decision is in the hands of the audience. Word of mouth is becoming more and more important for films in fierce competition, which has become a trend. "

  Love movies become the biggest winners?

  In the fast-paced life, watching brain-burning suspense and spy war movies is naturally no match for relaxing and enjoyable youth romance movies. However, "Above the Cliff" and "Secret Visitors" have more word-of-mouth protection than My Love.

  According to Mu Chen, Dean of the Lighthouse Research Institute of Alibaba Pictures, the "May 1" file does not belong to the big schedule, and the current pre-sale situation is still normal. "In the last four or five years, ‘ May Day ’ The box office has maintained a steady growth rate, and the average box office in the past two years has reached more than 300 million yuan. This year is a five-day holiday, which physically lengthens the time dimension of the schedule and will definitely broaden the schedule capacity. "

  Thirteen films were released together, naturally some people were happy and others were sad, but many people didn’t expect the romantic film My Love to rank first in the pre-sale. According to the statistics of Lighthouse Professional Edition, as of April 28th, the total pre-sale of My Love before screening has exceeded 41 million yuan, followed by the film Above the Cliff directed by Zhang Yimou, which exceeded 25 million yuan. Director Chen Zhengdao’s Secret Visitor, another suspense film after Master of Memory and Master of Hypnosis, ranked third with over 10 million yuan.

  Judging from the film theme and lineup, My Love does not have obvious advantages. The film, starring Greg Han Hsu and Zhang Ruonan, tells the story of Zhou Xiaoqi’s love for You Yongci who fell in love at first sight when he was young for 15 years, but missed and reunited again and again under the trick of fate. It was originally planned to be released on May 20 th, the homonym "I love you".

  It is hard to imagine that the pre-sale of this romantic film featuring "sweet abuse" can beat Zhang Yimou’s spy war blockbuster and Secret Visitor starring Aaron Kwok, Duan Long and Zifeng Zhang.

  Since 2013, "To Youth We Will Die", youth romance films have been dominating the box office of "May 1st" file. This year’s "Above the Cliff" and "Secret Visitors" did not perform as expected. Is it because suspense and spy films are not as popular as romantic films?

  According to the report of Lighthouse Research Institute, in recent years, from the perspective of type distribution, there is a feature that love and action suspense alternately prevail. In terms of audience types, the core audience of romantic films is larger than that of suspense spy films. Whether the audience can empathize and release strong emotions is an important weight for romantic films to achieve high reputation and box office.

  My Love tells the love story of ordinary people. After the release of his own lineup, the related video broadcast volume easily exceeded 100 million. On the vibrato platform, the film was marketed on the topic of "Ten years of long-distance love, and finally lost to reality", which caused heated discussion among netizens.

  Many people can’t help but write their emotional past and breakup experience under the video. As the film emphasizes in the propaganda, My Love interprets every "I" in love. "This film is for everyone, and I hope everyone can find their own past in this film and find their own appearance in love."

  According to Mu Chen’s analysis, My Love is a film with strong social attributes, and its theme types, including the main creative lineup, are very suitable for the young audience, so it is normal to achieve the current popularity and pre-sale results. Next, it depends on whether the content quality can be recognized by the core audience, which is the key factor for it to dominate the schedule. "Romance films are usually difficult to squeeze into the big schedule, and it is not surprising to dominate the small schedule."

  Ishikawa believes that it is a bit accidental that My Love ranks first in the pre-sale of May 1 ST, but the suspense film genre is relatively new in China film market, and there are not many breakthroughs in recent years. The box office performance is not very good, and the pre-sale of Secret Visitors is not ideal. Although Zhang Yimou’s films have a high artistic level and excellent production, they are also facing the problem of being out of touch with the mainstream audience of the post-90s and post-00s.

  In the fast-paced life, going to the cinema to watch a brain-burning suspense and spy movie is naturally no match for a relaxing and enjoyable youth romance. However, in the eyes of the industry, from the perspective of lineup and production, Above the Cliff and Secret Visitor are obviously more word-of-mouth than My Love. Even if the latter is ahead in pre-sale, if the word-of-mouth is not ideal, it may be quickly overtaken on the first day of release.

  Should the movie schedule be changed?

  Hoping on the slotting effect, it is inevitable to have a gambling mentality. Resources are too concentrated, and it is not good for the market in the long run. The industry should think about how to actively adjust the schedule and tap the potential of small schedule.

  The strongest Spring Festival file in history born this year is inseparable from the transfer consumption generated by the call of "celebrating the New Year on the spot". With the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, the number of people traveling on May 1 this year has greatly increased. Statistics show that this year’s "May 1" Shanghai hotel orders increased by about 12 times year-on-year, and the number of tourists nationwide is expected to reach a new high. With the increasing number of people traveling, it is bound to curb movie consumption to a certain extent, which makes the market prospect of this year’s "May 1 ST" file confusing.

  At present, the Lighthouse Research Institute predicts that the overall box office of the "May 1" file will reach 1.8 billion yuan. Judging from the pre-sale, My Love’s Secret Visitor and Above the Cliff are in the first camp. "The estimated target is 4 billion yuan, and the overall box office should not be too bad." Ishikawa believes that this year’s "May 1" film lineup is not weak, with directors, actors and stories … … Most of them are above the passing line. If two or three films can break 1 billion yuan, the box office is expected to hit a new high in the same period.

  "More than 10 films grab ‘ May Day ’ File, the most direct reason is this year ‘ May Day ’ The holiday lasts for 5 days, and the deeper reason is that the schedule efficiency and market share have become higher and higher since the resumption of work. " Liu Zhenfei believes that this year’s "most crowded ‘ May Day ’ File "continues the competition trend of Spring Festival file, but the non-file period is more deserted than in previous years, which may be a microcosm of the overall box office trend of the film market this year. "In the first quarter, for example, although the New Year’s Day file was 1.3 billion yuan in three days and the Spring Festival file was 7.8 billion yuan in seven days, the overall box office in the first quarter was 18.1 billion yuan, compared with 18.7 billion yuan in 2019. This is related to the fact that overseas markets have just recovered and the number of popular imported films has been greatly reduced, but in the final analysis, the market is increasingly dependent on the schedule."

  "To tell the truth, my biggest worry happened after the Spring Festival." Ishikawa found that after the Spring Festival, the movie box office fell off a cliff, and once the box office was only more than 20 million yuan a day. "In previous years, the popularity of the Spring Festival stalls will continue for a period of time, driving the small stalls such as Valentine’s Day to rise. We call it the hammock effect. However, after the end of the Spring Festival stalls this year, the box office suddenly fell, which also stimulated the producers to squeeze into the festival stalls." Mu Chen also believes that "the most crowded ‘ May Day ’ The emergence of "stalls" is related to the increasing concentration of the film market in China in recent years. For large-scale films, the schedule shows a particularly strong adsorption to the film side, and everyone hopes to get higher popularity and better box office with the help of the schedule.

  Hoping on the slotting effect, it is inevitable to have a gambling mentality. "Resources are too concentrated, and everyone is bleeding, which is not good for the market in the long run." Ishikawa believes that the industry should think about how to actively adjust the schedule, for example, by appropriately reducing the ticket price to encourage the usual film scheduling, disperse the competitive pressure of the festival schedule, stimulate public consumption, and tap the potential of the small schedule. Several films such as Antique close encounter of mahjong, etc. should have seen this and made a rational choice.

  Although the schedule benefit is high, some films suitable for long-term travel have achieved good box office in relatively deserted months. For example, "Calm Down" directed by Li Xiaofeng earned more than 80 million yuan at the box office last November. "It is an important way to improve the box office of movies to train the audience to watch movies in the off-schedule period." Liu Zhenfei called on the industry to pay attention to non-popular schedules in the selection of schedules, so as to promote the more healthy and benign development of China film market. Mu Chen also believes that how to improve the diversification of content supply and enhance the audience’s interest in entering the cinema is a problem that the whole industry needs to think about and take seriously in the next six months. "This year ‘ May Day ’ Compared with previous years, the stalls are indeed more crowded, but we must also consider an objective situation. Domestic films have long been in oversupply. According to the production of 1,000 films a year and the volume of about 500 films entering the cinema, there may be 10 films released in a week. ‘ May Day ’ The file is not too crowded. " Ishikawa believes that for the current domestic film market, the lack of truly competitive films and the low-level repetition of a large number of films are the biggest problems. "When we can produce four or five films like The Wandering Earth and Hi, Mom a year, it doesn’t matter whether the total amount is more or less. The key is to improve the quality of the film. "