The electric shadow of Japanese automobile empire: the choice and torture of traditional manufacturing industry | geography of overseas automobile market

　　Xiao yisi

　　"The market share of pure electric vehicles can only account for 30% at most, and the remaining market share will be occupied by hybrid vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and fuel vehicles." Recently, Akio Toyoda, chairman of Toyota Motor Corporation, once again "shelled" pure trams. He said that because of the lack of charging facilities, about 1 billion people in the world could not use electric vehicles, so a single pure electric vehicle could not provide transportation services for everyone.

　　In addition, Akio Toyoda also said that giving up fuel vehicles and choosing electric vehicles should be decided by customers, not by policies or regulations.

　　Judging from the recently released data, it seems that Toyota Motor is quite likely to win in this new and old energy dispute, and has made outstanding achievements in profitability, company market value and global sales. Take the company’s market value as an example. On the day when Akio Toyoda "shelled" electric vehicles, Toyota’s closing market value was fixed at 48.7 trillion yen (about 328.8 billion US dollars), making it the company with the highest market value in Japanese history.

　　As a pearl of Japanese automobile industry, Toyota is almost the vane of the development of the whole Japanese automobile market. Completely different from the streetscape where various brands of electric vehicles are constantly shuttling in Shanghai, when the First Financial Reporter walks on the streets of Japan at the end of 2023, the chances of seeing new energy vehicles are very small, and even Tesla is close to disappearing here. Instead, K-car (ultra-small car with a displacement of no more than 0.66L) or Toyota Erffa, which are nicknamed "Old Man Le" and "grocery cart" in China market, can be seen everywhere.

　　Here, it is obviously too early to talk about the end of the era of fuel vehicles. "It is no exaggeration to say that what Japanese cars were like when I first came to Japan 25 years ago, and what they are now, but the cars are new, and the consumption concept is still the same as before." Wang Li, chief operating officer of Hongqi Japan Experience Center, said in an interview with China Business News recently that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Japan is very low, coupled with the low willingness of Japanese car companies to transform, never deliberately promoting electric vehicles and poor charging infrastructure.

　　According to the data of Japan Automobile Sales Association Federation and Japan National Mini-car Association Federation, the sales of new cars (including mini-cars) in Japan reached 4.78 million in 2023, up 13.8% year-on-year, the first growth in five years, but it still failed to surpass the level before the epidemic in 2019. While the auto market is improving, the data released by Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Association, show that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Japan is less than 3% in 2023, which is not only far lower than that in China and Europe, but even lower than that in Canada, Mexico, South Korea and other countries.

　　It is the low penetration rate of new energy vehicles that makes many car companies see opportunities in the Japanese market. Tesla and BYD have successively entered the "forbidden import area" of Japan. Previously, according to Japanese media reports, SAIC-GM-Wuling has also investigated the Japanese market, and there are plans to introduce Hongguang MINI EV into sales. In 2023, the import of pure electric vehicles by foreign car companies in Japan exceeded 20,000 vehicles for the first time, reaching 22,890 vehicles, up nearly 60% year-on-year. Among the imported manufacturers, Tesla and BYD were among the top, while the pure electric vehicles imported by Japan just exceeded 10,000 vehicles in 2022.

　　It is true that the quantity of imported pure electric vehicles is still very low compared with the annual automobile sales in Japan. It is still difficult to decide whether it will be a single spark that started a prairie fire or a fleeting meteor. Just as in the face of the changing trend of global car electrification, whether the Japanese domestic market and the whole automobile industry it has cultivated are the afterglow of the empire or the sober-up after everyone is drunk remains to be concluded.

　　Automobile kingdom on internal combustion engine

　　Although the Japanese automobile industry has a history of more than 100 years, the real story basically begins with Ford entering Japan.

　　In 1925, Ford began to assemble the Ford Model T, which was popular all over the world, followed by General Motors and Chrysler, and came to Japan to set up companies to assemble and sell cars. In the following ten years, the embryonic Japanese automobile market was almost monopolized by the three major American automobile companies. However, American auto companies have also brought technology and manufacturing management experience to the Japanese auto market.

　　Looking closely at the development history of Japanese automobile industry, the government’s protection policy is essential. In 1936, Japan promulgated the Automobile Manufacturing Law, which prohibited foreign automobile companies from entering Japan, and Ford and GM were forced to withdraw. However, Japanese local car companies are increasing day by day, and today’s global champion Toyota Motor was established in 1937.

　　The early development of Japanese car companies was mainly based on imitation. Toyota’s early AA cars and SA cars were based on Chrysler Airflow and Volkswagen Beetle.

　　In order to avoid the impact of imported cars from Europe and the United States, since 1951, the Japanese government has also set high tariff barriers on imported cars, while strictly prohibiting overseas capital from directly investing in the Japanese automobile industry. The protection policy is superimposed on the popularity of local automobile consumption brought by Japan’s economic prosperity. Since the 1960s, Japan’s automobile industry has risen rapidly, and the local sales volume has jumped from 400,000 vehicles in 1960 to 4 million vehicles in 1970, achieving a tenfold high-speed growth. In 1966, Japan’s automobile production surpassed that of Britain and squeezed into the top three positions in the world.

　　The second take-off of Japanese cars benefited from two oil crises. In the 1970s, Japanese cars were not satisfied with the local market and began to expand overseas. At this time, it coincided with the soaring oil price, and the price of crude oil rose from $3.3/barrel in 1973 to $36.8/barrel in 1980. The economical and fuel-efficient characteristics of Japanese cars made them popular all over the world, and opened up the American market advocating high horsepower in one fell swoop. Coupled with the cost reduction brought by lean manufacturing, Japan’s total automobile output exceeded 11 million in 1980, surpassing the United States to become the largest automobile producer and exporter.

　　Since then, in order to avoid trade friction and further reduce production costs, Japan has replaced the simple export trade model by setting up factories overseas to directly produce or assemble cars. By 2015, the overseas production scale of Japanese cars has reached 18.09 million, almost twice that of domestic 9.28 million.

　　In Japan, the semiconductor and home appliance industries have not lagged behind one after another, and the automobile industry is very important to Japan. At present, it is the largest pillar industry in Japan, accounting for about 10% of Japan’s total GDP and 40%~50% of its industrial output value. There are 78 factories in 22 prefectures and counties in Japan, with more than 5.5 million related employees.

　　At the same time, with the development of Japan’s automobile industry, the consumption concept that used to be proud of owning an American car has already changed. The Japanese auto market has become a "forbidden place to import", and over 90% of the local market share has been occupied by Japanese auto companies. In 2023, the top ten automobile sales in Japan were all Japanese brands, including Toyota, Suzuki, Daihatsu, Honda and Nissan, among which a single Toyota brand occupied 26.5% of the market. In addition to local brands, there are almost only European brands that can be seen on Japanese streets, such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Volkswagen and Volvo.

　　Traditional fuel vehicles have made Japan’s automobile industry, but Japanese cars have also generated great inertia, which makes it difficult for them to "turn around like an elephant" in the face of global automobile electrification transformation.

　　Trapped in the transformation of new energy sources

　　"There is almost no publicity about new energy vehicles on traditional communication platforms such as TV and mailbox." An international student who has lived in Japan for a long time told reporters that the information of trams will only appear on the Internet, which is very fragmented compared with the domestic situation.

　　According to Rho Motion, a market research company, the global sales of electric vehicles in 2023 was about 13.6 million, up 31% year-on-year, of which 9.5 million were pure electric vehicles. In terms of market, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China reached 9.495 million, accounting for nearly 70% of the global market. In Japanese market, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is less than a fraction of that of China market. In 2023, the sales volume of pure electric vehicles just exceeded 20,000.

　　As a big automobile country, Japan is not only a "forbidden place for import" but also a "forbidden place for new energy". There are almost no electric cars on the road, and even Tesla Model Y, whose sales volume won the championship for the first time in 2023, has to be defeated in the Japanese market. In 2021, Tesla sold a total of 5,200 cars in Japan and only 1,900 cars in 2020.

　　Tesla’s difficulty in selling in Japan can also be seen from the price of Model Y in Japan, which is almost second only to China, the world’s most "rolled" new energy market.

　　"Japan has accumulated nearly a hundred years in the traditional internal combustion engine track, and it has achieved today’s achievements. Once you turn around and turn to new energy vehicles, it will involve more than 5 million families. This is not only a problem in the automobile industry, but also a social problem. " A Japanese car dealer investor told reporters.

　　Akio Toyoda has repeatedly stressed the unemployment cost caused by Japan’s automobile transformation. Earlier, Akio Toyoda declared that if Japan began to implement the "carbon neutral" plan focusing on electric vehicles, Japan would lose 5.5 million jobs and 8 million new car production capacity by 2030.

　　Wang Li told reporters that Aichi Prefecture in Nagoya is the location of a famous Japanese automobile industry cluster, where hundreds of Toyota parts suppliers gather. Once the electric vehicles are transformed, the whereabouts of these suppliers and local industries in Aichi Prefecture will be a big problem.

　　On the other hand, Japanese car companies headed by Toyota have repeatedly missed the electrification technology tree, which has further delayed its transformation process. In fact, it is not too late for Japanese cars to develop and explore new energy sources. Japan is one of the earliest countries to lay out batteries. As early as the 1990s, Japan had the first generation of "Big Three" composed of Panasonic, Sanyo and Sony. By the beginning of the 21st century, Japanese companies have produced nearly 90% of the world’s consumer lithium batteries. In 1997, Toyota introduced the world’s first mass-produced hybrid Prius, and in 2010, Nissan listed the world’s first mass-produced LEAF for pure electric vehicles.

　　But around 2010, Japanese auto giants headed by Toyota once believed that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles were the future. Mirai hydrogen fuel cell model launched by Toyota in 2014 is a representative event. Akio Toyoda has repeatedly "advocated" that lithium battery electric vehicles are not really clean energy, and the real new energy vehicles are actually hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. He believes that the world’s mainstream optimism about electric vehicles is likely to be a misunderstanding.

　　This concept makes the Japanese battery industry chain bet on hydrogen fuel cells, but ignores the investment in lithium-ion power batteries. Because of this, Japanese cars missed the first half of the development of global electric vehicles.

　　At present, the patent share of Japanese car giants represented by Toyota in the field of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles exceeds 74%, and it involves core fields. However, only technology has no market, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles simply cannot stand on their feet. By the end of 2022, the total number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in major countries in the world was 67,315, of which only 8,150 were in Japan.

　　"There is a hydrogen refueling station within one kilometer of my home, so I can occasionally see several hydrogen fuel cell cars, which are basically not seen in other places." Wang Li said.

　　Based on this, the above-mentioned investors told reporters that there are very few choices of electric vehicles in the Japanese auto market, and ordinary consumers have little knowledge of electric vehicles. The new energy vehicle market has not been cultivated at all.

　　Foreign brands take advantage of the situation to attack

　　However, the wheel of the times is rolling forward, and many countries around the world have identified electrification as the main direction of new energy vehicle reform in the future. The Japanese government, which was hesitant, also set the goal of "no burning" in early 2021, and announced that by 2035, 100% of the new cars sold will be electric vehicles.

　　In terms of subsidies for consumers to buy cars, Japan has also raised the maximum subsidy for pure electric vehicles from 400,000 yen to 800,000 yen, for plug-in hybrid vehicles from 200,000 yen to 400,000 yen, and for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles from 2.25 million yen to 2.5 million yen.

　　With the support of policies, the reporter learned from the consulting firm Kearney that the Japanese market is expected to turn to electric vehicles steadily in the future. By 2025, the penetration rate of electric vehicles (including pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles) will increase from 3% in 2021 to 8%, and further increase to 35% in 2035, when the global penetration rate of electric vehicles is expected to reach 27%.

　　In this context, foreign brands are gradually knocking on the door of Japan, a "forbidden place for imports", through new energy sources. Tesla opened the first local delivery center in Tokyo, Japan in November 2021 and began to deliver Model 3. In September 2022, Tesla officially announced that its current best-selling model Model Y has also landed in the Japanese market and opened a reservation.

　　BYD also officially entered the Japanese market on July 21st, 2022, becoming the second China automobile brand to enter Japan after FAW Hongqi.

　　"BYD’s entry into the Japanese passenger car market is a trend." BYD told the First Financial Reporter that on the one hand, the penetration of new energy vehicles in Japan is low, which shows from the side that there are still huge growth potential and industry opportunities in the Japanese electric vehicle market, and the Japanese government is committed to promoting automobile electrification, providing certain car purchase subsidies for electric vehicles, and actively encouraging more enterprises to participate in the construction of charging facilities. On the other hand, BYD has a good market base and brand base in Japan. In 1999, BYD started to serve Japanese customers with rechargeable batteries. Subsequently, BYD’s pure electric commercial vehicles, energy storage and other businesses were successfully carried out in Japan, accumulating a good market foundation and brand foundation.

　　So far, BYD has opened 17 stores in Japan, distributed in Tokyo, Yokohama, Nagoya, Fukuoka and other places, and plans to open more than 100 stores in Japan by the end of 2025. At present, BYD has listed BYD ATTO 3 and BYD DOLPHIN in Japan, and will soon launch BYD SEAL and other products.

　　Previously, according to Japanese media reports, I took a fancy to Japan’s huge K-car market. SAIC-GM-Wuling also investigated the Japanese market and planned to introduce Hongguang MINI EV into sales. Because of the narrow roads in Japan and the limited parking space resources in Japan, mini-cars have been selling very well in Japan, and Hongguang MINI EV is expected to sell much cheaper in Japan than mini-cars made by local Japanese companies. But for some reason, SAIC-GM-Wuling has not officially announced its entry into the Japanese market.

　　Although the absolute value of electric vehicle sales of foreign manufacturers in Japan is still very small, the year-on-year growth rate is very fast. In 2022, the sales of pure electric vehicles by foreign manufacturers in Japan exceeded 10,000 vehicles for the first time, and in 2023, the data exceeded 20,000 vehicles. The proportion of pure electric vehicles imported by foreign manufacturers also reached a new high, reaching 9.2%. Among them, BYD delivered 1,237 vehicles in Japan in the first year.

　　Compared with the total sales of more than 3 million vehicles in the whole year, BYD’s sales in Japan are almost negligible, but Chairman Wang Chuanfu attaches great importance to the Japanese market. According to relevant reports, in October 2023, Wang Chuanfu personally attended a dealer meeting in the port area of Tokyo. Recently, BYD Japanese dealers also came to Shenzhen for communication.

　　For the arrival of BYD, the largest publishing house in Japan, Nikkei BP, also dismantled the seal of BYD, and published a book, including BYD’s 3.0 platform, Sandian, CTB battery pack and body structure integration, etc., and the price was as high as 880,000 yen (equivalent to 43,000 yuan).

　　On the contrary, Japanese cars have gradually lost power in China, the fastest-growing new energy market. In 2023, the share of Japanese brands in China market fell to 17%, the lowest level in three years, and in 2020, it was 24.1%. In terms of brands, Toyota’s sales in China in 2023 was 1,907,600 units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%; Nissan’s sales in China were 793,800 units, down 24% year-on-year; Honda’s sales in China were 1,234,200 vehicles, down 10.1% year-on-year.

　　Will there be a "Nokia moment"?

　　On December 17, 2020, at the year-end press conference of Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, Akio Toyoda, as the president, publicly "shelled" electric vehicles, saying that electric vehicles were over-hyped. He believed that with the advent of the electric vehicle revolution, many enterprises would die, many investments would be wasted, and more carbon dioxide would be released in this process.

　　When such remarks came out, it triggered a lot of discussion in the industry. On December 21st of that year, He Xiaopeng, chairman of Xpeng Motors, forwarded the above remarks and wrote a story about Microsoft’s acquisition of Nokia, implying that Toyota was compared to Nokia in the era of smart phones.

　　Previously, there has been a discussion in the industry about whether traditional car companies will be subverted like Nokia. The sales of new energy vehicles are growing rapidly, eroding the basic disk of traditional fuel vehicles, which also makes many traditional car companies more and more anxious. Tesla CEO Musk, who holds a completely opposite view to Akio Toyoda, warned that if traditional car companies do not quickly transform into electric vehicles, they will be eliminated, just as Kodak, the film giant of that year, was abandoned by the digital age.

　　In this context, China’s new energy vehicles are not only entering the Japanese domestic market, but also entering the Southeast Asian market occupied by Japanese cars.

　　Climate Group, an international non-profit climate group, once published an independent report saying that if Japan cannot switch to pure electric vehicles in time, it will lose half of its automobile exports and 1.72 million jobs by 2030; By 2040, it will lose 14% of GDP and 80 trillion yen in profits (equivalent to 3.88 trillion yuan).

　　However, it is worth noting that although Japanese cars have suffered setbacks in China market, they have prospered in other markets, especially the achievements of Japanese cars in 2023 have given them more confidence in resisting electric vehicles. In terms of sales volume, Toyota is still the overlord in the era of fuel vehicles. In 2023, the global sales volume is expected to reach 10.65 million units, ranking first in the world for four consecutive years. In terms of financial performance, Toyota expects that in the latest fiscal year ending in March this year, the company’s consolidated operating profit will increase by more than 60% year-on-year, reaching 4.5 trillion yen (about 30.5 billion US dollars). If realized, Toyota will become the first Japanese company with an operating profit of more than 4 trillion yen. In terms of the company’s market value, on the day when Akio Toyoda "shelled" electric vehicles, Toyota’s closing market value was fixed at 48.7 trillion yen (about 328.8 billion US dollars), making it the company with the highest market value in Japanese history.

　　In addition to Toyota, in the third quarter of 2023, Honda’s net profit also reached 253.2 billion yen, a year-on-year increase of 34%; Nissan’s net profit was 190.7 billion yen, up 173.3% year-on-year.

　　For Japanese cars, the global market for traditional fuel vehicles is still large enough. However, in order to cope with the trend of electrification in the future, Japanese car companies such as Toyota have to be wrapped up in transformation, although electric vehicles are bombarded every three to five times. In May last year, Toyota announced that it would invest 5 trillion yen in related fields of pure electric vehicles (EV) by 2030, which increased by 1 trillion yen on the previous plan. Honda, which is famous for its engine technology, has formulated the most radical electrification strategy among the "top three Japanese companies", that is, only electric vehicles will be sold in the global market by 2040. Among them, in the China market, Honda will not launch new fuel vehicles by 2030, and 100% of new car sales will be pure electric vehicles by 2035.

　　On January 29th, Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. also announced that it will independently produce lithium iron phosphate batteries that do not use expensive materials such as nickel, and strive to be installed in pure electric vehicles launched by emerging countries after 2026. Nissan’s move is intended to reduce the cost of batteries by 20-30%, reduce the price of pure electric vehicles, and accelerate the popularization in emerging market countries.

　　"In terms of market share of power battery, a key component of electric vehicles, Japan has been left far behind by China and South Korea. If Japan wants to play a’ turnaround’, it is necessary to see the next generation of battery technology. " Hu Qichao, founder and CEO of SESI Corporation (SES), which focuses on mixed lithium metal batteries, pointed out to the First Financial Reporter.

　　At present, in the transformation of new energy vehicles, Japanese cars still hold two cards, namely solid-state batteries and hydrogen fuel cells. Solid-state battery has always been regarded as the next generation battery technology for electric vehicles. The First Financial Reporter learned from the global patent database of Wisdom Bud that Japan is in a leading position in terms of technology source and layout. In terms of patent distribution, Japan accounts for about 30.4% of the global total, followed by China, the United States, Europe and South Korea, accounting for about 26.2%, 14.4%, 5.2% and 3.9% respectively.

　　Toyota also regards the solid-state battery, whose energy density is expected to be greatly increased, as the key to overtaking in the curve on the electrified track. Investors’ high expectations for the commercialization of solid-state batteries and taking advantage of hydrogen fuel cells have also supported Toyota’s share price rise this year.

　　For the Japanese automobile empire, which relies heavily on the traditional internal combustion engine, some people think that it is only the afterglow of the sunset, but some people also point out that it is sober under the fanatical transformation. Zhu Huarong, chairman of Chang ‘an Group, mentioned not long ago that foreign brands are waiting for the best opportunity. Once they are transformed, with the resources they have and the global market, their rise cannot be underestimated.

　　In 2023, the global automobile sales will be between 79 million and 81 million, and the new energy penetration rate will be around 17%, while the new energy penetration rate in the global market except China will be only around 8%. It is foreseeable that the end of the automotive electrification reform has not yet come, and it will still be a protracted war.

　　Just two days after the news of French, German, Japanese and other commercial banks and insurance institutions applying to land in China came out, two more news came: First, on May 2, the Central Bank of China confirmed that the first foreign-funded payment institution had applied to the Central Bank of China for business. This means that foreign payment institutions have taken the first step to enter the China market. Second, on the same day, it was reported that a foreign company had started to apply for a credit investigation license in China.

　　This is the embodiment of China’s further financial opening.

　　Let’s look at the company that applied for third-party payment, named WorldFirst, which is a British-funded company. In April 2018, WorldFirst just launched the first collection product for cross-border B2B sellers in China — — World Account to solve the problem of cross-border payment for cross-border e-commerce sellers, so it is very important to obtain a third-party payment license in China, otherwise, the development of China market will be limited. The application of WorldFirst to the Bank of China for a cross-border business payment license indicates that China’s financial opening is expected to go further in the field of third-party payment.

　　The company that applied for the credit information business license is even bigger. Yiborui Company, headquartered in Ireland, is a giant of credit information business in the world, with business all over the world and huge branches in the United States.

　　Generally speaking, if the central bank confirms the receipt of the application, it means that the central bank has actually started the process of approval. Therefore, these two cases, some low-key applications, were officially confirmed, which means that China’s financial opening-up is real, and it is a fence to cut the knife and cut the flesh.

　　The third-party payment market in China has achieved great success in recent years. The well-known third-party payment companies represented by WeChat and Alipay have made eye-catching profits in this field. Ant Financial has mastered Alipay, and its valuation has surpassed many financial companies in the United States by hundreds of billions of dollars. However, the size of WeChat Tenpay is not inferior to Alipay. Of course, its actual valuation should also be around here. Even so, China’s third-party payment market still has great potential to be tapped. For China’s huge domestic third-party payment market, foreign capital used to be out of reach. But now it seems that soon, foreign capital can come in to participate in the competition and share a piece of the action.

　　The credit investigation market in China has just started. There is a vast space for both corporate credit investigation and personal credit investigation, and many aspects are still blank. I am afraid the market potential in this respect is no less than that of third-party payment. Different from third-party payment, there is no strong competitive opponent in China in this respect, that is to say, if foreign capital comes in, it is basically a blue ocean with huge profits.

　　Therefore, China’s opening up in these two areas is really very bold and courageous.

　　No wonder countries, especially several developed countries, have been acting so frequently recently.As long as they have some market judgment, they will never ignore the huge space of China’s financial market. Whoever falls behind in the process of opening China’s financial market will lose half of the future first. From a global perspective, I am afraid that the two major financial opening dividends that China wants most are American companies. Let’s look at the third-party payment market in China, which is the big fat that companies with payment services in the United States, such as Apple and paypal, want to get. Apple has previously entered the payment market in China through the cooperation with China UnionPay, but after all, it is a four-way payment, and its business development is not satisfactory. Therefore, in the competition with WeChat and Alipay, Apple, which is far behind, should dream of getting a third-party payment license in China.

　　Needless to say, the three major rating agencies in the United States, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s Investment Services and Fitch Ratings Limited, are all giants in the global credit reporting field. If they can’t successfully enter the credit reporting market in China, or lag behind other competitors in the pace of entering China, they will probably have a great adverse impact on their future competitiveness.

　　However, if American companies really lag behind their western counterparts, it is not China’s fault. China people believe in "making money with harmony". After all, the United States initiated a trade war with China, and public opinion in China could hardly accept the result: open these fields and let those guys who threw stones at themselves happily take away the benefits. Needless to say, no one has the guts!

　　(The author is an international critical commentator Si Hai)

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　　[Dialogue]

　　Nowadays, parents are anxious when it comes to their children’s study. They generally feel that their children don’t like to study and do their homework, which often leads to "war at home" because of urging their children to study, especially the parents of some students with good academic performance, which also reflects that their children don’t like to study. Why? An Fuhai, a professor at the Teacher Development Research Center of Hangzhou Normal University, interviewed students in some schools in view of this phenomenon, hoping that the conclusions will enlighten our current educational predicament.

1. "I love learning, and learning makes my mother happy!" The disharmony behind it

　　Reporter: Generally speaking, people think that children who don’t like learning are children with poor academic performance and bad study habits. But now many excellent primary and middle school students, even the first students in many classes, don’t like studying. Why is this?

　　An Fuhai: At the end of 2019, a class of junior high school students in a middle school sports meeting in Shenzhen typed "I love learning, and learning makes my mother happy!" The banner, once circulated, has gained a lot of resonance. Many primary and middle school students shouted "What a talent! Say ‘ Working people ’ The voice of ". The implication is that they don’t like learning either. The banner and the shouts of the adherents made the adults laugh, but the laughter was full of sadness. It was also during that time that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) announced the test results of programme for international student assessment 2018 PISA2018. In the sampling test of 15-year-old students in 79 participating countries (regions), we achieved excellent results in three subjects (reading, mathematics and science). However, different from the "Celebration" after the announcement of our first prize in 2009 and 2012, the education sector began to rationally reflect on the problems exposed by the PISA test, including education balance, shortage of teachers, study time and teaching methods. In my opinion, we should also think deeply about the relationship between our students’ learning status and academic performance. Because the current situation of students’ learning tells us that there is a disharmony between their learning status and academic performance, that is, they have good academic performance but do not like learning.

　　Reporter: Common sense tells us that you can get good grades only if you like to study.

　　An Fuhai:After all, the results are obtained by the students themselves, so it is necessary to listen to the voices of the parties. With this "common sense", I randomly interviewed 60 students from three middle schools who participated in the 2018 PISA test. "Do you like studying? Will learning make you feel happy? " When hearing this question, most students just laughed and didn’t answer. The students’ answers mainly focus on these aspects: "Hehe, it’s ok"; "Like, not to mention, it should be said to be liked"; "Not very much"; "Study, homework, I immediately feel worse when I hear these two words"; "There are people who like to learn? Crazy, it must be crazy. " The number of students who answered "not bad" in each school is very small.

　　In fact, the data that students’ learning satisfaction in four provinces and cities in China ranks 61st among the participating countries (regions) has fully explained that good grades do not necessarily love learning. In addition, the PISA2018 test results also show that the learning efficiency of students in reading, mathematics and science in four provinces and cities in China and their sense of belonging to the school are also relatively low in the participating countries (regions). In other words, students not only dislike learning, but also have no sense of belonging to the school. In fact, this conclusion doesn’t need PISA test to tell us at all. Just walk into a school to observe a few classes or interview some students and teachers to get a similar understanding.

2. Every time except sleeping and eating time is filled with study.

　　Reporter: I don’t like learning, and my learning efficiency is relatively low. Why can I get the "first" grade?

　　An Fuhai:Prolonging study time is our magic weapon to win. Although the PISA2018 test results show that the average classroom study time of students in four provinces and cities in China ranks fourth among the participating countries (regions). However, the statistics here are only the study time arranged by the school, and the students’ extracurricular independent study time is not included. As we all know, Chinese students, especially those in big cities, spend an amazing amount of extra-curricular study time. It is learned from these three schools that most students spend about 3 hours a day after class in a week, with a total of 15 hours in five days; The study time for two days on weekends is about 8 hours. In this way, the total study time of Chinese students per week will definitely be far ahead among the 79 participating countries (regions). The PISA test results in 2012 also showed this problem. The Shanghai team represented the mainland of China in the total score of mathematics, reading and science, but it also won another first place, that is, the study time is the longest, with 13.8 hours per week, which is about 20 hours together with extracurricular tutoring, while the average of OECD countries is 7.8 hours.

　　If you think this statistic is not convincing enough, let’s take a look at the situation that parents attach importance to their children’s education. Most parents in China attach importance to education, and the most prominent performance is to enroll their children in various remedial classes from kindergarten. Statistics show that in 2019, families in Hangzhou spent 20,000-40,000 yuan on children’s extracurricular tutoring every year, and it rose to 30,000-50,000 yuan in 2020. Almost every family gives tutoring to their children, ranging from three to five or six. Parents’ high investment in education is enough for students to fill up their studies at every time except insufficient sleep time and hot meal time.

　　Reporter: Yes, primary and secondary school students are not getting enough sleep, and the myopia rate and obesity rate are increasing. People from all walks of life have been calling for these problems in recent years, but they have not been improved.

　　An Fuhai:Although several PISA tests have made China students’ excellent achievements proud, there are huge time costs, physical overdrafts and heavy costs for students to lose interest in learning. According to the survey in 2020, the average myopia rate of primary school students in China is about 36%, that of junior high school students is 71.6%, and that of senior high school students is 81%. The key point is that high myopia above 600 degrees accounts for 28% of the 81% myopia of senior high school students. In addition, the number of students suffering from depression in many key middle schools is increasing, and the number of students who commit suicide or have thought about suicide is also increasing year by year. Whether it is for families, individuals or the whole country, such a fact is too cruel, and such a price is unbearable for us.

3. I hate school and study, even if I get into a prestigious school, it is difficult to create outstanding achievements.

　　Reporter: Primary and middle school students get up the earliest, go to bed the latest, and work hard to get good grades, but in the end they don’t like learning. This phenomenon is really worrying. But maybe many parents don’t think so. In their view, as long as children get the first place in the exam, they can go to a good university and have a good job, so all the physical and mental efforts seem to be worth it.

　　An Fuhai:The good expectation of "Jackie Chan becomes a phoenix", the learning goal of "score first" and the learning process of repeated training make students hate learning, school and even knowledge, which seems nothing to some parents. However, we should deeply realize that a considerable number of seemingly excellent students are forced to study under various external pressures. Once the pressure is lifted, they will inevitably evade learning. What will be the future of those students who evade learning? This is not a disease-free groan and melodramatic sadness, but a problem that deserves our deep thought more than paying attention to score ranking. If a student hates school and doesn’t like studying, even if he can be admitted to a prestigious school in the future, it will be difficult to create outstanding achievements. Because he has no enthusiasm for learning and can’t experience the happiness of learning, it is impossible to devote more time and energy to studying what he has learned. We have learned a lesson in this respect. China began to participate in international Olympic mathematics competitions around 1985, including physics competitions, biology competitions and computer competitions. There are many winners every year, from 1985 to now for more than 30 years. Many foreign child prodigies who competed on the same stage as China’s child prodigies have become everyone in all fields, but we seldom contribute to the world. Take Tao Zhexuan, an Australian-born Chinese mathematician and winner of the Fields Medal for Mathematics, as an example. He was less than 13 years old when he won the Olympic gold medal in 1988. At that time, many students in China also won Olympic medals.However, few people have made such outstanding achievements as Tao Zhexuan, and most of them have been far away from mathematics.

　　Reporter: How important is it for the growth of students to love learning and be full of interest and enthusiasm for learning?

　　An Fuhai:The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee proposed to improve the national innovation system and accelerate the construction of a powerful country through science and technology during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. It can be said that to achieve such a great goal, we need to cultivate innovative talents through education. Active interest in learning and pleasant learning experience are the internal motivation of learning, the foundation of healthy personality and the necessity of innovative talents. Interest is the best teacher. Once a person has a strong interest in something, he will take the initiative to seek knowledge, explore and practice. The positive emotion and pleasant experience generated in the process of seeking knowledge, exploration and practice will further promote new seeking knowledge, exploration and practice, which will lead learners to a happy road of learning and exploration. Therefore, parents should let go of their anxiety and leave more free time and space for their children to fully develop their interests, so that they can love learning and grow up healthily with happy emotions and positive experiences. Schools should pay less attention to some problem-solving skills and high-scoring cheats, and pay more attention to the laws of students’ physical and mental development and the mechanism of learning. Starting from students’ interest in learning, they should awaken students’ intrinsic learning motivation and lofty pursuit of life, so that they can actively explore the unknown world with happy learning emotions and happy learning experiences.

Since the beginning of this year, "special forces travel" has exploded. In fact, there is never more than one way to open a trip. There are "filming agents" who amaze the circle of friends, people who queue up for 2 hours just to be "temporary breeders", and some people say that "thousands of scenery is not as good as accompanying you". China Tourism Day, look at the true portrayal of contemporary young people’s travel. Are you yourself? Safety first, just have fun.

Image source @ vision china

Wen | maidian

Since the beginning of 2023, influenced by multiple factors such as favorable macro policies and good economic development, the tourism market has been resilient and growing continuously during the Spring Festival, Qingming Festival, May Day and Dragon Boat Festival holidays, and the "Mid-term Examination" report card is eye-catching. According to the data of domestic tourism in the first half of 2023 released by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, in the first half of the year, the total number of domestic tourists was 2.384 billion, an increase of 929 million over the same period of the previous year and a year-on-year increase of 63.9%; Domestic tourism revenue (total tourism expenditure) was 2.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.12 trillion yuan or 95.9% over the previous year. It can be seen that the number of domestic tourists and income increased significantly in the first half of the year, and the tourism industry entered a new channel of comprehensive recovery.

1. Domestic tourism data in the first half of the year: the number of visitors and tourism revenue "double growth" year-on-year, but there is still a certain gap with the same period in 2019.

Domestic tourist arrivals: According to the data released by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, in the first half of 2023, the total number of domestic tourists was 2.384 billion, an increase of 929 million over the same period of the previous year and a year-on-year increase of 63.9%. Among them, the number of domestic tourists of urban residents was 1.859 billion, a year-on-year increase of 70.4%; The number of domestic tourists of rural residents was 525 million, a year-on-year increase of 44.2%. Quarterly: In the first quarter of 2023, the total number of domestic tourists was 1.216 billion, a year-on-year increase of 46.5%. In the second quarter of 2023, the total number of domestic tourists was 1.168 billion, an increase of 86.9%.

Comparing the number of tourists in each quarter from 2020-2023Q2, the number of tourists in 2023Q1 and 2023Q2 reached a new high in four years, and the number of tourists recovered obviously in the first half of 2023. Further comparison with the tourism situation in the first half of 2019: the number of domestic tourists in the first half of 2019 was 3.08 billion. By comparison, there is still a certain gap between the number of domestic tourists in the first half of 2023 and the same period in 2019, and it has returned to 77.40% of the same period in 2019.

Domestic tourism revenue: In the first half of 2023, domestic tourism revenue (total tourism expenditure) was 2.30 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.12 trillion yuan or 95.9% over the previous year. Among them, urban residents spent 1.98 trillion yuan on travel, a year-on-year increase of 108.9%; Rural residents spent 0.32 trillion yuan on outings, a year-on-year increase of 41.5%.

Comparing the domestic tourism revenue from H1 in 2019 to H1 in 2023: In 2023, the domestic tourism revenue increased significantly, which was the highest since 2020. However, compared with 2019H1, the difference was 0.48 trillion yuan, and it recovered to 82.73% of 2019H1.

2. Inbound and outbound tourism in the first half of the year: the prosperity index of outbound and inbound tourism markets both exceeded the same period in 2019; The per capita consumption of outbound travel increased significantly, and "Hong Kong and Macao" led the recovery process of outbound travel; The number of entry-exit personnel increased by about 170% year-on-year.

According to the data of China Outbound Tourism Market Prosperity Report and China Inbound Tourism Market Prosperity Report released by the World Tourism Alliance in the first half of 2023, the outbound tourism prosperity index in the first half of 2023 was 28, which was 21 higher than that in the same period of 2019, and the outbound tourism was "U-shaped" and gradually recovered, instead of bottoming out quickly; In the first half of 2023, the inbound tourism boom index was 15, which was 13 index points higher than that in the first half of 2019 before the epidemic. However, due to the relatively complicated approval process of international route adjustment, the fragmented service chain of inbound tourism products, the closure of inbound tourism enterprises and the serious brain drain, it is difficult for the inbound tourism market to reach the level of 2019 in the short to medium term, showing a trend of "orderly recovery and fluctuating recovery".

According to the latest data of Alipay’s outbound platform: From January to June 2023, the per capita consumption of Alipay users for outbound travel increased by 24% compared with 2019. In terms of popular destinations, in the first half of 2023, the top ten outbound destinations in terms of transaction volume were: China, Hong Kong, China, Macau, Japan, Thailand, France, South Korea, Australia, Canada, Britain and Xinjiapo. China tourists have once again become an important force driving global tourism and offline consumption. Judging from the number of outbound tourists, the top ten tourist destinations are Shenzhen, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Beijing, Hangzhou, Foshan, Dongguan, Zhuhai, Chengdu and Wuhan. It can be seen that outbound travel is mainly concentrated in first-tier and new first-tier cities, and the five cities of Greater Bay Area, the "Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Foshan-Dongzhu", are also the main force of outbound travel.

Since the beginning of 2023, the National Immigration Bureau has continuously optimized and adjusted the exit and entry management policies: on February 20th, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area mainland cities implemented the endorsement policy for talents traveling to and from Hong Kong and Macao on a pilot basis, and on May 15th, 2023, it fully resumed the implementation of four measures, including the "National General Office" for mainland residents to travel to Hong Kong and Macao. With the convenient optimization of Hong Kong and Macao tourism policies, many provinces in China have organized a number of Hong Kong and Macao tour groups, and the number of mainland tourists entering Hong Kong and Macao has been rising. According to the data released by the Hong Kong Tourism Board, in the first half of 2023, there were nearly 13 million visitors to Hong Kong, including about 10 million mainland visitors, accounting for about 77%.

In addition, according to the latest data released by the National Immigration Bureau: in the first half of 2023, a total of 168 million entry-exit personnel were inspected, an increase of 169.6% year-on-year; More than 10 million ordinary passports were issued, a year-on-year increase of 2647.5%; 42.798 million endorsements of entry and exit documents for Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan were issued, up by 1509% year-on-year, which further reflected the strong recovery of China’s entry and exit tourism.

1. Tourism data of some provinces in the first half of the year

According to the incomplete statistics of Maidian Research Institute, as of July 24th, nine provinces (municipalities directly under the Central Government and autonomous regions) have published the tourism data of the first half of the year. Compared with the same period in 2022, due to the low base in 2022, the number of tourists and tourism revenue in all provinces and regions showed positive growth, and the overall recovery was obvious.

Compared with other provinces, Yunnan Province ranks first among nine provinces and cities in terms of tourism reception and tourism revenue, with 539 million tourists received and total tourism revenue of 693.4 billion yuan, both exceeding the same period in 2019. In 2023, Yunnan Province launched "There is a Life Called Yunnan", and in just four months, the whole network read more than 9 billion people, which continued to ferment and extend, such as cooperating with China Tourism News to column "There is a Life Called Yunnan" and planning to publish 10 boutique tourist routes of "There is a Life Called Yunnan, Traveling to Yunnan in a Cool Summer". Behind this phenomenon, on the one hand, it reflects the strong recovery of the tourism market in Yunnan Province, on the other hand, it also represents the future shift of the tourism model-paying more attention to life and experiencing holidays in depth.

In the first half of 2023, the cultural tourism market in Jiangsu Province was "bright", receiving 478 million domestic and foreign tourists, up 98.3% year-on-year, achieving a total tourism revenue of 610 billion yuan, up 83.5% year-on-year, and its recovery was better than that of the whole country. In addition, according to the business data of UnionPay, the total consumption of cultural tourism in Jiangsu Province in the first half of the year was 252.359 billion yuan, up 31.8% year-on-year, accounting for 10.2% of the country, ranking first in the country. The achievement of these achievements is closely related to the series of supporting policies of the Provincial Department of Culture and Tourism, such as the introduction of the "15 Articles of Suzhou Culture and Tourism" policy, the arrangement of special funds of 90 million yuan to support 130 projects, and the award of 26 million yuan to travel agencies and grade travel homestays, so as to fully promote the comprehensive recovery of the cultural and tourism market in the province.

2. Tourism data of some cities in the first half of the year

At the city level, according to incomplete statistics, six cities released tourism data in the first half of the year: the number of tourists and income of each city showed "double growth", with the growth of key tourist cities such as Zhangjiajie and Sanya being the most obvious. Taking Zhangjiajie as an example, in the first half of 2023, the city received a total of 18.8922 million domestic and foreign tourists, an increase of 185.40% year-on-year; Tourism revenue reached 25.268 billion yuan, up 162.86% year-on-year. It can be seen that the number of tourists and tourism revenue both increased by over 100% year-on-year. As early as the end of 2022, Zhangjiajie declared "2023 as the year of comprehensive tourism recovery in the city", held the cultural tourism consumption season in May, issued the "Implementation Plan of Zhangjiajie Tourism Marketing Award in 2023" in June, and will hold the first China (Zhangjiajie) conference series in September, so as to comprehensively promote the city’s tourism recovery through "consumption season, conference and marketing award" and other measures.

1. Performance of tourism data of each holiday

According to the data of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, during the four holidays of Spring Festival, Qingming, May Day and Dragon Boat Festival in the first half of this year, the number of domestic tourists increased by 23.1%, 22.7%, 70.8% and 32.3% respectively, and the domestic tourism revenue increased strongly by 30.0%, 29.1%, 128.9% and 44.5% respectively. The resilience and continuous growth of the tourism market have dominated the basic pattern of comprehensive recovery of the domestic tourism market.

Further from the comparison between the holidays and the same period in 2019, according to the comparable caliber, during the Spring Festival, May Day and Dragon Boat Festival, the number of domestic tourists recovered to 88.6%, 119.09% and 112.80% of the same period in 2019 respectively, and the domestic tourism income recovered to 73.1%, 100.66% and 94.90% of the same period in 2019 respectively. It can be seen that the May Day holiday is a turning point (the number of trips and tourism income both exceed the pre-epidemic level), which indicates that the domestic tourism market has fully recovered and turned into normal development. From the analysis of the May Day holiday data in various provinces and cities, the trend of "recovery and turning point" is further reflected. For example, the number of tourists and income in nine provinces and regions such as Yunnan, Shandong, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Tianjin, Inner Mongolia and Jilin have all recovered or exceeded the level of the May Day holiday in 2019, and the per capita tourism expenditure in Beijing, Hainan, Shanghai, Zhejiang and Hunan has exceeded 1,000 yuan.

2. The characteristics of the holiday tourism market

During the Spring Festival holiday, the long-distance tourism market led the recovery, and "annual taste tour", ice and snow tour and quality holiday were sought after. According to Ctrip data, cross-border air ticket orders for the Spring Festival in 2023 increased by more than 4 times; According to the data of Qunar platform, the average radius of tourists’ travel during the Spring Festival increased by over 50% compared with 2022, and the travel distance of each passenger increased by an average of 400 kilometers compared with last year. At the same time, influenced by China’s traditional Chinese New Year customs, seasons and other factors, visiting temple fairs, experiencing ice and snow sports, punching in cultural exhibitions, and participating in non-legacy folk activities are still hot topics for Spring Festival travel.

During the Qingming holiday, the local outing and "one-day spring outing" are hot. Qingming holiday in 2023 is a one-day holiday, so local and close-up "one-day spring outing" has become the choice of most people. According to the data of Ctrip. com, the booking volume of one-day tour products in Qingming holiday has increased by more than 5 times compared with the same period of last year, and short-distance travel is hot, and the order for self-driving car rental has increased by more than 10 times year-on-year. In addition, the Qingming holiday coincides with the "spring blossoms" season all over the country, and outdoor activities such as hiking, mountaineering, flower viewing and camping are also popular.

During the May Day holiday, the scene of "people following the crowd" reappeared in scenic spots, and the popularity of cross-city and inter-provincial tourism increased significantly. The popularity of traditional popular tourist destinations did not decrease, and the emerging online celebrity cities "broke the circle", and parent-child play, non-legacy, leisure vacation and rural tourism were favored. During the "May 1" period, the country welcomed the "blowout" travel of tourists, and the passenger flow in many places broke through the historical record one after another. The scene of "people following the crowd" in popular attractions such as Hangzhou West Lake, Nanjing Confucius Temple and Beijing Summer Palace reappeared. According to Ctrip’s "May 1 Travel Data Report in 2023", the flight distance of users during the "May 1" holiday reached a four-year peak, the travel radius increased by 25% compared with the same period of last year, and inter-provincial hotel bookings accounted for over 70%. From the destination point of view, Beijing, Hangzhou, Dali, Xiamen and other places are still hot, and online celebrity cities such as Chongqing, Changsha and Zibo, and minority destinations such as Changxing and Xianju have attracted much attention.

During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, domestic tourism demand continues to recover, inbound and outbound tours meet a small climax, people return to life, and theme tours such as folk experience tours, leisure tours that pursue a sense of relaxation, cultural tours of music festivals and art exhibitions and performing theatres, and citywalk are favored. According to the data of the Dragon Boat Festival travel report released by Ctrip, Qunar, Feizhu, Mama Donkey and Tongcheng, the Dragon Boat Festival holiday is mainly short and medium-distance, and the booking of Zhou Bianyou with short trip and convenient transportation is hot. At the same time, the inbound and outbound tourism market ushered in a small climax during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. According to the data of the National Immigration Bureau, the number of people entering and leaving the country recovered to more than 60% in 2019. From the perspective of product selection, unlike the "special forces" punch-in tour on May 1, tourists return to life during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, and the "relaxation" tour is hot. At the same time, the traditional culture represented by dragon boat races, dumplings, and garden parties, and the trend culture represented by music festivals and art exhibitions have their own magical powers, bringing rich tourism consumption choices to domestic tourists.

2023 is a year of vigorous and comprehensive recovery of the tourism industry. Tourism practitioners are trying to find a breakthrough through various efforts, "both adapting and changing", so hot spots in the tourism market frequently occur in the first half of 2023. It is beneficial and enlightening for government departments, industry managers, enterprise market players and service practitioners to gain insight into the new trend of tourism industry, explore the new fashion of tourism consumption, and study new ways of playing tourism through new tourism words and phenomena.

Hot spot 1: "Director online celebrity" —— Fancy endorsement by the directors of local cultural tourism bureaus, and new exploration of tourism marketing.

Hot spot 2: "Cooking tea around the stove"-ceremonial consumption, tourism atmosphere economy, new formats driving new consumption

Hot spot 3: "Secret Box in the Prosperous Tang Dynasty"-IP cultivation of cultural tourism, deep experience and interaction of tourism, and promotion of national marketing.

Hot spot 4: "Go into Zi to catch the roast"-gourmet tour, and mass consumption is still an important force driving the recovery of the consumer market.

Hot spot 5: "Temple tourism"-escape from pressure and spiritual sustenance, and the demand for spiritual meditation and healing tourism products is strong.

Hot spot 6: "Village Super and Village BA"-National Movement, Integration of Sports and Tourism to Promote the Development of Rural Tourism Economy

Hotspot 7: "Special Forces Travel" VS "City Walk"-High-intensity and fast-paced special forces travel vs urban deep immersion experience tour, after retaliatory and compensatory tourism, the change from quantity to quality.

Hot spot 8: "Concert Economy"-The integration of "performing arts and tourism" will stimulate the economic growth of urban tourism industry chain.

Taking stock of the hot topics and phenomena in the tourism market in the first half of 2023, we can find that with the normalization of travel, the recovery of the cultural tourism market is fierce, and the phenomenon of "special forces" retaliatory and compensatory tourism consumption is frequent; After the opening up, the competition in the tourism market has become more intense, which is evidenced by the fact that the directors of local cultural tourism bureaus have endorsed local tourism and robbed market traffic. Diversified tourism consumption demands, such as "cooking tea around the stove", "interactive experience tour in the prosperous Tang Dynasty", "spiritual healing tour in the temple", "special forces", "Citywalk" immersed city tour, "going to a city for a concert" and so on, have inspired local governments and tourism market entities to constantly innovate the supply of products and services. The recovery of tourism consumption market is gradual, with high-frequency and low-price mass tourism consumption taking the lead, while the recovery of low-frequency and high-price long-distance travel and outbound travel is relatively slow; The phenomenon of stratification of tourism consumption is more prominent, and "consumption degradation" and "consumption upgrading" coexist at the same time. Some people seek "special forces tour" with high cost performance, while others pay for "a sky-high concert ticket".

In the first half of 2023, the overall tourism market showed a trend of high opening and steady walking: the number of domestic tourists was 94.23% of the whole year of 2022 (2.53 billion); Domestic tourism revenue (total tourism expenditure) is 2.30 trillion yuan, 0.26 trillion yuan higher than the whole year of 2022 (2.04 trillion yuan), that is, "it takes half a year to complete the performance of the whole year of 2022". In addition, according to the semi-annual performance pre-announcement of tourism listed companies, according to statistics, nearly 40% of enterprises have recovered or even exceeded the profit level before 2020. It can be seen that the recovery of domestic tourism market has been established, but the recovery of inbound and outbound tourism is slow due to many factors such as routes, visas and family financial situation.

Looking forward to the second half of the year, we will usher in the traditional tourist season-summer vacation and the Mid-Autumn Festival and Eleventh Holidays. At present, the summer tourism season is coming. From the demand side, there is a strong demand for theme tours such as parent-child tours, study tours and summer vacations. According to the summer travel order data released by OTA platforms such as Ctrip and Tuniu, by the middle and late June, summer parent-child travel orders accounted for more than 30% of summer orders, up more than 7 times year-on-year, basically returning to the pre-epidemic level; The booking volume of research products has exceeded the same period in 2019; The search heat of summer country tour is more than 20% in the same period of 2019. In terms of outbound travel, the popularity of summer travel bookings in Hong Kong and Macao has soared, and Europe has become the main destination for summer outbound travel. Switzerland, Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal and other products are highly popular. From the perspective of the supply side, the cultural travel merchants are "gearing up", actively adapting to the consumption trend, promoting the iteration of traditional formats, timely launching explosive new products and new formats that meet the expectations of mass summer consumption, and continuously expanding effective supply. Tourist destinations have launched fancy activities such as music festivals, beer festivals and concerts in order to attract more young customers in the summer. On the policy side, in view of the difficulty in booking tourist attractions, the General Office of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism issued the Notice on Further Improving the Open Management Level of Summer Tourist Attractions to make arrangements for booking management, flexible supply, product innovation and market order, so as to better meet the tourism needs of the broad masses of the people. At the same time, local governments have intensively introduced measures such as issuing tourist vouchers and preferential tickets for scenic spots to further explore the local summer tourism market and actively guide tourism consumption.

The "booming supply and demand" of the summer tourism market, policy blessing and consumption promotion are expected to reach the peak of domestic travel throughout the year, and will also lay an excellent foundation for the comprehensive recovery of the domestic tourism market in the second half of the year. Comparing the tourism data in the first half of 2023 with the domestic tourism data in the whole year of 2019-the number of tourists reached 6.006 billion and the total tourism revenue was 6.63 trillion yuan. To reach the level of 2019, there is still "catching up space" of "3.676 billion passengers and 4.33 trillion yuan" in the second half of the year. The pressure is self-evident, and the challenge is still severe. Whether we can create another miracle will not only test the development resilience and vitality of the "invisible hand", but also test the wisdom and ability of the "visible hand".